The numbers do not add up for Democrats and other liberal oriented parties, and 2018 mid-term will be the first real look at how the American people are really adapting to the policies of Donald Trump. However, we can see some disdain at this moment, but the disdain of the people doesn’t necessarily correlate to votes. One of the biggest things the things Democrats need to be doing at this point is loading up voters. Voter registration for 2018 and beyond will be crucial. If they want to hold any chance to win any ground in the arrangement of power in this nation then they need voters. Not only young voters but some who are older as well. One of the things that will be crucial going forward is not only getting people registered but keeping them motivated to follow their brand which took a hit last November.
The Bad News: The Senate
Let’s take a look at the senate map. It seems like a tall task, but bigger political upsets have happened. Donald Trump won over states which rarely vote red including the Midwestern “T” states Wisconsin and Michigan. He also won bluer states Pennsylvania and West Virginia. These were states which were never supposed to be in play in this election. No only do Dem’s have damage control in this region, but they may need to flip some red states. It looks like a daunting task, but plenty of upsets are possible. One thing that bodes well for them is there usually is a good separation that comes from the president’s party and the house.
8 Senate Races which could go Red:
- Bill Nelson, Florida
- Joe Donnelly, Indiana
- Claire McCaskill, Missouri
- Jon Tester, Montana
- Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota
- Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin
- Joe Manchin, West Virginia
- Bob Casey, Pennsylvania
25 of the 33 contested senate seats in 2018 mid-term election belong to Democrats who are in need of at least four more seats to control the house. I say at least because of the two independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King caucus with the Democrats. So Democrats will need to keep their states which they hold and win 4 seats of the 8 available seats. It’s this likely, not, but is is possible, yes. However, they can gain ground at a minimum. Nevada looks like the safest bet for Democrats to flip blue. However, the remaining states include Tennessee, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nebraska, and Wyoming. Not a lot of holes for them to poke. There is hope in Arizona, but again it will take some work. The bottom line the current math does not look good. However, there appears to be a major grassroots organization building up which could shift the tides. Nonetheless, the way the past elections for Democrats have been going flipping senate could be a tall task.
GOP Seats Which Are Up in 2018: Luther Strange (Alabama), Jeff Flake (Arizona), Roger Wicker (Mississippi), Deb Fischer (Nebraska), Dean Heller (Nevada), Bob Corker (Tennessee), Ted Cruz (Texas), Orrin Hatch (Utah), John Barrasso (Wyoming)
Again, looking at the names there is not a lot of room to steal a state. Nevada maybe, Arizona’s political climate has been shifting, and maybe there’s a window in Texas. Now, most of you are looking at this and wondering what I’m talking about here, but Ted Cruz isn’t the most popular senator on the planet, while he’s not really unpopular in his home state there’s a chance. Plug in a young promising politician Julian or Joaquin Castro and there is a chance. Joaquin and Julian Castro are the only chance Democrats have flipping the map and winning Texas. Maybe Orrin Hatch hangs up his hat which could open a narrow window in Utah. There are possibilities out there but at this point, it looks as if the GOP will hold onto the senate.
The Potentially Good: Gubernatorial Seats
So as many of you know currently Democrats are getting their butts kicked in governorships. In 2017, there are two key races, one of which the Democrats need to hold, and one where there is a chance to flip. Virginia is one which will need to hold. Virginia has a stupid one-term policy so Terry McAuliffe is on his way out, likely to step up is either Ralph Northam or Tom Perriello. Early looks have it Northam vs. Gillespie. Democrats have to win this race. However, more importantly, or equally importantly is taking the governorship in New Jersey. Chris Christie is becoming increasingly unpopular this could damage his party’s chances to win. So these will be two 2017 races to watch. Both keys for Democrats to gain.
Then 2018, will be huge as well. 39 seats will be contested this year. There will be a number of key opportunities for Democrats as well. Illinois is a safe bet to return blue, Bruce Rauner looks like he’s on his way out. Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, Maine, and Nevada are all open seat spots which could be gained for Democrats. Michigan, New Mexico, Maine, and Nevada seem likely. However, there are a few Democratic seats which are not necessarily safe. Maryland is a blue state, Massachusetts is a blue state, and there will be open seats in Georgia and Ohio. Scott Walker is controversial in Wisconsin.
There is a big opportunity for Democrats to win a large amount of the governor races. However, again it comes down to getting voters registered and motivating them to show up on election day.
The Potentially Good: The House
240-193 is the current breakdown, and taking back the house is still feasible. With the rise of “The Resistance”, this becomes increasingly possible. If 2010, can show the impact of what a highly motivate voter group can do then this could be great news for Democrats. If they win the House they will gain a lot of power back which they do not have, and it would be horrible news for the President who would now be under a microscope if he is still in office at that point. This is our hope to counter this administration, and getting voters out will be crucial. There needs to be a youth movement that usually doesn’t occur in mid-terms but given the circumstances, this is looking like a real possibility. There are a lot of openings out there and this will be a race to keep a close eye on.